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Black Tie International:
China Energy Fund Committee
Energy Outlook 2015: A China's Perspective in the U.S.

Photos by: Blacktiemagazine/GMK

 
 Professor Zhang Jiansheng, Ms. Anne Korin,Dr. HO C.P. Patrick (何志平),Zeng Xingqiu (曾兴球),Xu Xiaojie,

 Professor Zhang Jiansheng
 from the Department of Thermal Engineering,
 Tsinghua University


Ms. Anne Korin,
 Co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) and Adviser to the United States Energy Security Council.

Dr. HO C.P. Patrick (何志平)
Deputy Chairman and Secretary General, China Energy Fund Committee
Former Secretary for Home Affairs of the HKSAR Government

Zeng Xingqiu (曾兴球)
the vice chairman of the Energy Research Center of China Investment Association
and the former director general of the International Cooperation Department
 of China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC)


Xu Xiaojie,
who leads the energy outlook team
 at the Institute of World Economics and Politics,
Chinese Academy of Social Science in Beijing, China.

 
China Energy Fund Committee
中华能源基金委员会

Energy Outlook 2015:

A China's Perspective in the U.S.
 

www.cefc-ngo.co

 

Experts:

 China will play a key role in efforts to optimize global energy mix

  China is certainly an important element in the global energy system. However, it is still regarded as a huge black swan by the rest of the world. In view of this, China Energy Fund Committee (CEFC) together with leading international energy expert Xu Xiaojie, have launched the English report entitled “Energy Outlook 2015: A China’s Perspective” in the United States, and held the publication release in New York on April 23. This report is not only an annual energy outlook but also a combined outlook on both China and the world.

The “Energy Outlook 2015: A China’s Perspective” is designed to provide the author’s insights and foresights on ongoing energy policies, development strategies, market trends and cooperation approaches with the rest of the world in the context of climate change, the Silk Road initiative and other global agendas from now into 2020 and 2030, with follow-up reviews and analyses on the year 2014 and 2015.  It has been prepared by Professor Xu Xiaojie, who leads the energy outlook team at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Science in Beijing, China.

In this report, the author expressed that Chinese policies and efforts will contribute greatly to an improvement of the energy mix worldwide, especially in Asia. China’s share of world CO2 emissions is 1-2 percent lower than IEA estimates, and this trend will be more evident in 2020 and the post-2025 period. Based on these outlooks, it is safe to say China will play a key role in efforts to optimize the global energy mix and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The report also states that the future energy mix in China will be optimized better and faster than the IEA (International Energy Agency) Outlook predicts, except for the power supply sector, where optimization is expected to be slower than the IEA prediction.

Many leading energy experts were in attendance and delivered keynote speeches, including Professor Zeng Xingqiu, Vice Chairman of the Energy Research Center of China Investment Association; Professor Zhang Jiansheng from the Department of Thermal Engineering, Tsinghua University; and Ms. Anne Korin, Co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) and Adviser to the United States Energy Security Council.

Dr. HO Chi-ping Patrick, Deputy Chairman and Secretary-General of CEFC, emphasized at the publication release that to gain a better understanding of Chinese energy policy requires not only communication and dialogue but also open and transparent exchanges of thoughts and information at all levels. The energy industry on the whole as well as China’s roles and Chinese contributions have to be factored into the new normal of the world economy facing us today and tomorrow.

Professor Zeng Xingqiu remarked that the future trend of world energy development revolves around four aspects:

1. Low-carbon development has become a worldwide consensus in the energy sector – “Low-carbon development will surely usher in a worldwide energy and environmental revolution”, he said, “People should change their old consumption habits, adopt new ideas, new methods and new initiatives to push forward with low-carbon development and come up with practical solutions to environmental protection.

2. Oil and gas will continue to dominate the world’s primary energy consumption – “Oil no longer dominates energy markets as it once did, but we are by no means entering the ‘post-oil era’. As high-grade transitional energy sources, over the next 50 to 100 years, oil, gas and coal will not disappear from the markets entirely, especially natural gas, which is an emerging energy source.”

3. The development of new technologies has become a global trend – “Resources are still very important today, but a resource advantage in itself is no longer sufficient to stay competitive in today’s markets. The shale oil and gas revolution in the United States has demonstrated that with new technologies come new resources.”

4. Reform and innovation is the fundamental driving force for the development of the international energy market – “Oil-producing countries are also actively implementing reform measures,” he said, “China’s economic development is entering a new phase, and the best way to adapt to this ‘new normal’ is through reform and innovation. China should make good use of the opportunities brought about by the “One Belt and One Road” initiative to comprehensively deepen reform, create a “unified, open, competitive and orderly” market system, and focus on carrying out its energy revolution.”

Anne Korin put the energy outlook in the context of the global outlook for security. She pointed to what was going on with respect to geopolitics in the world specifically in the Middle-East and North Africa. She said that one of the resources that China, India and the United States have in abundance is coal, which is a much safer and secure energy resource compared with oil. She said that coal does have the potential to be a clean energy resource, depending on the technology used to utilize it. In particular, she believes that there is tremendous potential for coal in the transportation fuel market, particularly in China where enormous progress has already been made in converting coal to methanol. This is vital to improving China’s urban air quality. Alcohol fuel made from coal has much lower emissions, she said, compared to diesel and petroleum based gasoline. She said that tapping into China’s coal sector to feed the transportation fuel market will also serve to stabilize transportation fuel prices, which will benefit the country’s economy. She said that this would serve the entire world through international technology cooperation by allowing China to export its technology through its “One Belt, One Road” effort throughout the region. “This will have a very profound impact on global security”, she said. She also pointed out the problem with linked oil and natural gas prices in Asia, preventing natural gas from being arbitraged against oil effectively, and preventing Asian countries from taking full advantage of natural gas.

 

About CEFC:

The China Energy Fund Committee (CEFC) is a non-governmental, non-profit civil society organization. It also serves as a high-end strategic think tank engaged in energy strategy research, energy and public diplomacy, as well as global energy cooperation and cultural exchanges.

For more information, please visit: http://www.cefc-ngo.co/en/index.php

 

2015世界能源中国展望」英文版于美国发布

专家:中国能源结构优化将推动全球

 

2015423日,美国纽约】中国是全球能源发展的重要因素,也是重构全球能源安全体系的重要力量。为推动能源生产和消费革命,打造中国能源升级版,明确今后一段时期中国能源发展的总体方略和行动纲领,中华能源基金委员会联同中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所能源研究室主任徐小杰教授共同出版《2015世界能源中国展望》英文版报告,并于423日在美国纽约举行新闻发布会。报告中指出,2030 年将迎来一场极具影响力的全球能源消费结构的优化过程。基于中国的新能源政策调整趋势,将直接推动全球(特别是亚洲地区)能源结构的优化。

 

中华能源基金委员会常务副主席兼秘书长何志平在新闻发布会上表示,中国迎来能源发展转型的重要战略机遇期,中国与外部世界需要公开、透明和平等的信息交流与对话。通过《2015世界能源中国展望》英文版报告,让中国了解世界的发展趋势,同时也将推动外部世界尤其是西方国家更深入地研究中国国情、中国的能源数据与政策,从而深入认识中国在世界上的角色与作用、中国的贡献和发展趋势。

 

多位能源界翘楚出席了当日的新闻发布会并发表简短演说,其中包括中国投资协会能源研究中心副理事长曾兴球;清华大学热能工程系教授,国家燃气轮机与煤气化联合循环国家工程研究中心主任工程师张建胜;全球安全分析研究所所长及美国能源安全委员会高级顾问安妮.科林 (Anne KORIN)

 

曾兴球教授强调未来世界能源发展的趋势有四个方面:

1.    低碳发展已经成为世界能源的共识。低碳发展必将带来一次世界性的能源和环境革命。人们需要改变陈旧的消费习惯,用新的理念、新的方法、新的举措推动低碳发展,务实解决环境污染问题。

2.    油气在世界一次能源消费中仍将占主导地位。石油在能源市场中的作用不像过去那样强势,但决不是已经进入‘后石油时代’。作为优质过渡性能源,在近50年至100年内,石油、天然气和煤还不可能完全退出市场,特别是天然气这种新兴能源。

3.    研发新技术已经成为世界潮流。资源在今天仍然很重要,但是光凭借资源优势已经不能掌握市场竞争的主动权。美国页岩油、页岩气革命成功充分说明,有新技术就有新资源。

4.    改革创新是国际能源市场发展的根本动力。产油国都在积极推行改革措施。中国经济发展到了‘新阶段’,适应‘新常态’,最有效的办法是改革创新。中国要借‘一带一路’建设的大好机遇,全面深化改革,建立‘统一开放,竞争有序’的市场体系,并专注实行它的能源革命。

 

安妮.科林从全球安全的角度看能源,她从世界地缘政治方面,特别是中东和北非的情况谈论事情走向。她提到,中国、印度和美国都拥有大量煤炭,那是比石油安全和稳定得多的能源。依靠使用煤的技术,煤确实有潜力成为清洁能源。她尤其相信煤在运输燃料市场特别是中国有巨大潜力, 因为中国在转换煤炭为甲醇方面有长足的发展。这对改善中国市区空气素质相当重要。比起柴油和石油为主的汽油,从煤提炼的酒精燃料有很少的排放。善用中国的煤以满足运输燃料市场将可以稳定运输燃料价格,这有利于国家的经济。而让中国经‘一带一路’向区域输出其技术,凭着国际科技合作,全世界都能分享成果。这将为全球安全带来深远的影响。她也指出结连石油和天然气价格在亚洲的问题,就是妨碍摆脱石油从天然气套利,也妨碍亚洲国家充分利用天然气。

 

2015世界能源中国展望英文版报告以严谨的资料分析作基础,诠释了能源企业应树立正确的理念和高效运作机制,在战略上实行转型和转变,从「走出去」战略进一步提升到「丝绸之路」战略构想,使政府、产业与国内外的公众之间形成良好的互动和对话。

 

报告同时指出,中国煤炭、石油、核能和可再生能源的需求增长明显低于IEA(国际能源署)的展望水平,而天然气明显高于IEA的增长速度。因此,在本报告预测中国能源消费结构优化快于IEA的预期。中国能源结构的优化也将直接推动全球(特别是亚洲地区)能源结构的优化。另一方面,本报告提到中国碳排放的世界占比IEA1-2个百分。两者碳排放差距在2020年和2025年后较为明显。如果这些预期和展望是合理,中国将可以为全球能源结构优化和全球温室气体排放控制做出重大贡献。

 

关于中华能源基金委员会:

中华能源基金委员会是一家非政府、非营利,从事能源战略研究、开展能源及公共外交、发展能源事业的社会组织和高端战略智库,致力于促进全球能源合作和文化交流。更多详情可访问我会网站:


 
http://www.cefc-ngo.co/en/index.php

 

Xu Xiaojie,
Xu Xiaojie,
who leads the energy outlook team
 at the Institute of World Economics and Politics,
Chinese Academy of Social Science in Beijing, China.
Professor Zhang Jiansheng from the Department of Thermal Engineering,
 Professor Zhang Jiansheng from the Department of Thermal Engineering,
 Tsinghua University
Ms. Anne Korin, Co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) and Adviser to the United States Energy Security Council.

Ms. Anne Korin, Co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) and Adviser to the United States Energy Security Council.

 
Zeng Xingchaiu
Zeng Xingqiu (曾兴球)
the vice chairman of the Energy Research Center of China Investment Association
and the former director general of the International Cooperation Department
 of China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC)
Sally Fan, Zeng Xingchaiu
Sally Fan, Zeng Xingqiu (曾兴球)
the vice chairman of the Energy Research Center of China Investment Association
and the former director general of the International Cooperation Department
 of China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC)
 

“CEFC China Energy Focus 2014:
Towards Clean Coal” released in Washington

China Leads the World in Clean Coal Utilization

 

Driven by the rapid development of its labor-intensive and export-oriented industries, China’s demand for coal-derived energy rose tremendously. Thus, how to use coal more cleanly and responsibly in a carbon-constrained world has become the central concern of the Chinese government and the industries. The Chinese government has pledged to be a responsible international player in climate mitigation, and given that China could be endowed with the possibility to lead the world in low-carbon development, clean coal utilization will be both a necessary and pressing option for China’s future energy development.

 

Recognizing the prospects of cleaner coal utilization as an urgently needed means to balance the need for affordable fuel sources for growth and mitigating the harmful effects associated with coal consumption in China, the CEFC has published an English report entitled “CEFC China Energy Focus 2014: Towards Clean Coal”, and held a publication release at the National Press Club in Washington D.C.  on April 22, to present readers with the latest developments, challenges as well as opportunities for developing cleaner utilization of coal in China. While recognizing the advancement of clean coal technologies, this report also pays close attention to questions pertaining to the market prospects as well as policy factors that will affect the future direction of clean coal development in China, such as what policies the government has introduced to promote clean coal projects, and how the slumping international oil price will affect the coal-based energy sectors in China.

 

Several leading experts from top organizations were in attendance to discuss the challenges and opportunities of Chinese clean coal technology. Among the attendees were Dr. Patrick HO Chi-ping, Deputy Chairman and Secretary-General of China Energy Fund Committee; Mrs. Ayaka JONES, leading China coal analyst at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Professor Zeng Xingqiu, Vice Chairman of the Energy Research Center of China Investment Association and the former Director General of the International Cooperation Department of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC); and Mr. SUN Xiansheng, President of the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute (ETRI).

 

By conducting interviews with leading Chinese energy experts and translating their views and opinions into English, this report also serves as a gateway for western audiences to gain an in-depth understanding of how the Chinese energy industries evaluate and anticipate the prospects of clean coal utilization. In doing so, it also aims to create more opportunities to facilitate policy discourses as well as knowledge sharing between Chinese energy industries and their foreign counterparts.

 

Dr. HO Chi-ping, Patrick (何志平) , Deputy Chairman and Secretary-General of China Energy Fund Committee, expressed that given the necessity to rely on coal, the only energy source which China has in abundance, the fact that China needs an affordable energy for its industrialization, urbanization and development, and the international pressure to mitigate the deleterious effects of coal consumption, China may be the only place on earth to possess the room and opportunity to realize the potential of developing and experimenting with the various modes of low carbon and clean coal technologies.

 

About CEFC:

The China Energy Fund Committee (CEFC) is a non-governmental, non-profit civil society organization. It also serves as a high-end strategic think tank engaged in energy strategy research, energy and public diplomacy, as well as global energy cooperation and cultural exchanges.

For more information, please visit: http://www.cefc-ngo.co/en/index.php

Summary of Key Findings:

 

1.      Cleaner utilization of coal in China is usually comprehended in a much broader sense that it not only covers important technological aspects like carbon mitigation, but also includes a range of other technological issues including power plant efficiency improvement, coal-based chemical conversions and coal preparation. However, under the current policies, wherein the environmental costs of energy consumption have hardly been monetized, different opinions still exist in terms of the effectiveness and economic feasibility of different technological approaches of cleaner utilization of coal in China. 

 

2.      Divergent views exist regarding the peak coal timing and level. The central government has set a target to control annual coal consumption at around 4.2 billion metric tons by 2020. Yet various interviewed experts gave different projections of the timing and the physical volume of the peak coal demand, reflecting different views of the economic growth, energy demand growth, and the supply mix. Their projections range from coal peaking at 4.0 billion metric tons by as early as 2016 to coal peaking at 4.55 billion tons no earlier than 2020.

 

3.      The coal-fired power sector should not be the primary sector to blame for the pervasive air pollution. Although most of the coal consumption in China comes from the electric power sector, their environmental performance, however, is better than that of the industrial coal boilers, thanks to the increasing adoption of pollution control technologies in the power sector. Latest data has shown that the average emissions of coal-fired power plants in China are 1.9 g/kWh for SO2, 2.6 g/kWh for NOX, and 0.4 g/kWh for fine particulates, which is impressive for a developing economy.

 

4.      The overall efficiency of the coal-fired power plants in China is highly competitive, even compared with those in many developed economies, thanks to the increased deployment of modern coal-fired power plants. By the end of 2013, the net coal consumption per unit of electric power output in China was 321 grams of standard coal equivalent per kilowatt hour (gce/kWh) in low heating value (LHV), which was close to the corresponding 306 gce/kWh in Japan and well below the 359 gce/kWh level in the US in 2012. The Chinese government has set a target for the average net coal consumption of coal plants in China to be lowered further to 310 gce/kWh by 2020.

 

5.      Considering the high-efficiency and the economic viability of supercritical (SC) and ultra-supercritical (USC) units, their deployment in China is expected to continue to increase in the near future. China is currently running the world’s largest fleet of SC and USC units and is expected to deploy more advanced power units to improve the overall efficiency and reduce the net coal consumption of its coal-reliant utility power sectors. In 2010, the total installed capacity of SC and USC units in China exceeded 120 GW and the number of 1000 MW USC units in operation alone had reached 62 by the end of 2013.

 

6.      The integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology might offer much better environmental performance than conventional coal power plants, but its high operating and maintenance costs governs that a wide scale commercial application of the technology is less likely in China, at least for the near future. According to the latest data, the average cost of electricity generation of an IGCC unit in China is as high as RMB 0.8-0.9 per kilowatt hour, which is about five times higher than the average cost of a pulverized coal-fired power plant. Even provided with government subsidies, the IGCC plant will still be running at a RMB 0.3 deficit for every kWh of electricity it generates.

 

7.      Coal-based chemical projects are developing at full speed in China and are regarded as an important aspect of clean and efficient utilization of coal. However, their economic viability will hinge on multiple factors including technological matureness of the coal-conversion system (in most cases referring to the gasification systems), feedstock prices, and the operating and managerial experiences of the plant proprietor. Price of alternative fuels and feedstock such as oil and natural gas are also important factors that will influence the market performance of coal-based chemical projects in China.

 

8.      Among all the sub-sectors of the coal-based chemical industry, coal-to-synthetic-natural-gas (CSNG) production is regarded as the most controversial and least profitable one. Due to the gas price level not high enough to justify the capital and operating cost and the high delivery cost associated with the long-distance gas transmission, the coal-to-syngas projects were commonly regarded as the least profitable coal-based chemical projects in China by the interviewed experts. Although the National Energy Administration (NEA) envisioned a 50 bcm/y production capacity of coal-based syngas to be completed by 2020, whether the real production capacity will reach the designated number remains uncertain.

 

9.      Coal-to-liquids (CTL) is identified by the interviewed experts as the most profitable coal-based chemical projects in China in a high oil price scenario, considering its relatively lower production cost and its value in providing alternative supply sources to foreign imported oil. According to the data collected from the interviews, the lowest possible production cost for every ton of coal-based liquid production in China could be as low as RMB 2,850 (or about USD 64 per barrel), which is very competitive under a high oil price scenario. Through technological advancement and efficiency improvements, it is believed that the profit margin of the coal-derived liquid products could even be expanded further given persistent high oil prices.

 

10.  As for the coal-to-olefin (CTO) projects, the low fuel costs of the stranded coal mines in Western China might be able to secure its cost advantage over the conventional naphtha-based olefin production routes, but how long the cheap feedstock factor can be sustianed is uncertain. In addition, the fast-growing CTO industry in China might displace its own naphtha to olefins industry for the time being. However, it might also be displaced by the expanded olefin production capacity in North America and the Middle East underpinned by cheap natural gas feedstock.

 

11.  Aside from the economic factors, water resource availability is another key issue for modern coal chemical projects in China. As the coal chemical projects are usually gargantuan water consumers, how to ensure sufficient water supply for the coal-based chemical projects and balance their water requirement with competing water consumers should be carefully addressed. In addition, technological matureness of the processing systems and the managerial experiences of the operator will also play a critical part in determining the plants’ efficiency in water use and waste water treatment.

 

12.  Carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems have been operational in several demonstration projects in China. Three pilot CCUS projects have been completed and put into operation in the electric power industry in China and two advanced carbon capture projects are under construction. Three more projects have been planned but are still pending final government approval. But considering their high operating and investment costs, whether CCS projects could be commercially viable in China will largely hinge on the progress of policy instruments such as an effective carbon pricing system and a mature carbon trading market.

 

 

中华能源基金委员会在美国发布

CEFC中国能源焦点:煤炭清洁利用」英文报告

中国引领世界清洁煤炭利用

2015422日,美国华盛顿】作为传统的煤炭生产及消费大国,中国三十多年来高度依赖煤炭生产与消费。有鉴于煤炭未来在中国能源生产及消费中仍将保持重要地位,如何将煤炭利用变得清洁、高效,以平衡中国未来发展中对可负担能源资源及环境可持续发展的双重要求,将成为中国未来能源发展的重要方向。

 

清洁煤炭利用对中国未来能源发展非常重要,因此中华能源基金委员会出版题为《CEFC中国能源焦点2014:清洁煤炭利用》的英文报告,并于今日在美国华盛顿国家新闻中心 (National Press Club)举行新闻发布会。该报告收集、整理、翻译了中国多位学界、业界专家对中国发展煤炭清洁高效利用的意见和看法,就清洁煤炭技术未来在中国的推广,及其将面临的挑战进行详细分析,并通过大量一手材料,系统地为海外有兴趣了解的读者带来呈上清洁煤炭利用在中国的最新发展及趋势。报告中指出,中国未来进一步城镇化、工业化的庞大规模所引发的能源需求,中国将为世界提供不可多得的清洁煤炭技术开发及应用所需的宝贵市场空间,继而引领引领世界清洁煤炭利用。

 

当日出席新闻发布会的有中华能源基金委员会常务副主席兼秘书长何志平博士;美国能源信息署(EIA)首席中国煤炭分析师钱文华(Ayaka JONES);中国投资协会能源研究中心副理事长曾兴球;清华大学热能工程系教授张建胜以及中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员徐小杰。

 

报告内提到,中国经历近三十年的快速发展,以煤为主的能源消费结构亟需调整,以应对来自环境污染以及气候变化等多方面的挑战。煤炭虽为中国经济过往的高速增长提供了充足且可便宜的能源供应,但随着大气污染情况不断恶化,公众对减少煤炭消费的呼声日益高涨。严格控制煤炭消费总量,大力发展煤炭替代能源,成为了中国政府及民间共同的目标。然而,作为传统的煤炭生产及消费大国,中国三十多年来高度依赖煤炭生产与消费的发展惯性,非一朝一夕所能改变。截至2013年底,煤炭占中国一次能源消费比重,虽较往年略有降低,却仍占到超过65%的比重。根据国务院最新发布的「能源发展战略行动计划(2014-2020年)」,2020年煤炭占中国一次能源消费比重的目标仍将占62%左右。

 

何志平博士在发布会上指出,有鉴于煤炭未来在中国能源生产及消费中仍将保持重要地位,如何将煤炭利用变得清洁、高效,以平衡中国未来发展中对可负担能源资源及环境可持续发展的双重要求,将成为中国未来能源发展的重要方向。《CEFC中国能源焦点2014:清洁煤炭利用》的英文报告内容涵盖清洁煤炭政策分析、先进煤电技术、先进煤转化技术、煤炭多联产技术等,报告以严谨的资料分析作基础,希望对关注中国能源发展的机构与个人,特别是海外读者,提供有价值的参考。另外,通过此份出版物,也希望为西方读者打开一道了解中国学者及专家如何看待未来中国发展清洁煤炭利用的大门,同时将中国在清洁煤炭利用领域的发展最新成果分享给世界,为促进中外能源界交流协作,尽绵薄之力。

 

 

报告调查观点摘要

 

1.    煤炭清洁利用的概念在中国延伸的较为广泛,其不单涵盖国际上热门的碳捕捉及储存技术,更囊括一系列如煤电机组效率提升,现代煤化工,以及煤炭预处理在内的技术。然而,在当前的政策环境下,特别是煤炭利用的环境成本很少被货币化的前提下,针对煤炭清洁利用技术如何在中国行之有效的推广,仍存在很多不同意见。

 

2.    针对煤炭消费峰值何时到来以及峰值水平的问题,存在不同意见。中国政府虽然设立了意图将煤炭消费总量于2020年控制在42亿吨的目标,然而,不同受访专家对中国煤炭消费峰值到来的时间及峰值水平存在诸多不同意见,跨度从201640亿吨,到2020年前达到45.5亿吨不等。

 

3.    煤电领域不应该被归咎于目前导致中国大气污染的最主要原因。尽管中国大部分的煤炭消费来自电力部门,但电力领域燃煤的环保表现其实好于许多任务业燃煤锅炉,主要得益于其近年对安装污染物控制设施的投入。环保部最新数据表明,目前中国燃煤电厂平均二氧化硫排放仅1.9/千瓦时,氧氮化物排放仅2.6/千瓦时,颗粒物排放仅0.4/千瓦时。这些数据对于一个发展中国家而言实在难能可贵。

 

4.    中国燃煤电厂当前的整体效率表现良好极具竞争力,哪怕与发达国家比较也不遑多让。这主要得益于近年来大量先进煤电厂的快速落成。截至2013年末,中国全国煤电机组平均供电煤耗率仅为321/千瓦时,低于美国2012年平均约359/千瓦时的水平,接近日本同期约306/千瓦时的水平。目前,中国政府目标在2020年,将全国煤电机组的平均供电煤耗率进一步提高至310/千瓦时的水平.

 

5.    考虑到超临界煤电机组(SC)及超超临界机组(USC)在高效及经济性方面的优势,预计他们在中国的应用在短期内将会继续扩大。中国目前是世界上最大的超临界及超超临界机组运行国,并且预计其装机规模将会继续扩大,以应对中国对提升煤电机组效率,减少发电煤耗的要求。2010年,中国超临界及超超临界机组装机总量已超过120GW,截至2013年末,中国百万千瓦超超临界煤电机组数量已超过62台。

 

6.    整体煤气化联合循环技术(IGCC)相较于传统煤电技术,环保表现较好,但其较高的运行及维护成本将导致其在中国的大规模商业应用变得非常困难。根据最新数据资料,IGCC技术在中国的平均运行成本在人民币0.8-0.9/千瓦时之间,差不多是粉煤发电成本的5倍,哪怕算上当前政府给予IGCC项目的补贴,预计实际运行中仍将存在人民币0.3/千瓦时左右的亏损。

 

7.    煤基化工项目目前在中国正高速发展,并且被认为是中国清洁高效利用煤炭措施的一部分。然而,煤化工项目的经济性与否取决于多方因素,如煤转化技术的成熟度,原料煤价格,煤化工项目商的运营经验等。另外,替代燃料的价格波动,如石油、天然气等,也是影响中国煤化工项目盈利能力的重要因素。

 

8.    在当前所有煤化工项目分类中,煤制气被认为是最具争议也是盈利能力最不乐观的项目。目前中国天然气零售价格并不能完全弥补煤气化项目的高资本投入及长距离运输成本,导致煤制气项目普遍被认为是最不具盈利能力的项目。尽管能源局规划了2020年约500亿立方米的煤制气产能,但实际项目中能有多少投产仍然是未知数。

 

9.    煤制油项目在报告中被认为是在高油价背景下,中国煤化工项目中最具盈利前景的板块,特别是考虑到煤制油项目相对较低的产品成本以及在提供进口原油替代方面的作用。根据访问所得到的最新数据显示,当前每吨煤制油的成本可低至人民币2850/吨(约64美元/桶)远低于高企时的原油价格。相信通过技术上的不断成熟,煤制油项目的经济性还有进一步提升的空间。

 

10. 煤制烯烃项目目前的盈利边际主要来自于中国西部煤矿低企的原煤价格,以及其相对于传统石脑油制烯烃的原料成本优势。然而,这种原料成本优势能够维持多久,却很不确定。另外,煤制烯烃产能的扩张还可能影响中国本土石脑油制烯烃项目当前的盈利能力。另外,面对北美及中东快速扩张的基于廉价天然气的烯烃产能,本土煤制烯烃能否长期保持价格优势,也属未知数。

 

11. 除了经济性因素之外,水资源的制约也是影响中国煤化工产业至关重要的因素之一。由于煤化工项目普遍耗水巨大,如何保证稳定,充足的水资源供给,并平衡煤化工用水与其他产业用水之间的矛盾需要谨慎评估。另外,煤化工项目本身的运营效率及其配套水处理系统的成熟程度,也将决定煤化工项目在水循环利用及污水处理方面的表现。

 

12.  碳捕捉、利用及储存系统(CCUS)目前在中国已有多个示范项目投入运营。目前中国单煤电一个领域便已有三大CCUS项目投入运行,两大先进项目在建,三项工程待政府批准。但考虑到CCUS项目的高运营及投资成本,今后该技术在中国进一步的推广很大程度还要取决于政策措施的到位,如有效的碳定价系统及成熟的碳交易市场。

 

 
 
 
 

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