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Peace News Agency of Hong Kong:
Seven month fight of COVID-19 in China
Peace News Agency of
Seven months fight of COVID-19 in China
The COVID-19 is still spreading world wide, and a few
imported cases emerged in China from time to time.
The situation report by WHO (World Health Organization) on
July 12 says new confirmed cases exceed 230,000 in this
single day globally, the biggest increase since the outbreak
of this epidemic. Some of the fastest increases come from
the United States, Brazil, India
and South Africa.
COVID-19 in the past
At the outbreak of the covid-19 epidemic, the British
magazine Lancet made an analysis. They ranked
Shanghai as the highest risk city in the world, because they
believe Shanghai has more than 24 million permanent
residents and over 30 million migrant populations. The city
also has the most inbound and outbound flights in China.
Imperial College London used a mathematical model to
estimate, if Shanghai fails to control the virus
effectively, 800,000 people will be infected; if it
controlled the epidemic, 80,000 people would be infected; if
it contained the epidemic very well, the number of infected
person would also get close to 30,000. As a matter of fact,
confirmed cases in Shanghai by June are just around 350.
Zhang Wenhong (Doctor of Medicine, Director of infection
department of Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan
University, a Chief physician and PhD supervisor) predicted
in January 24, the epidemic would develop into three
situations:. Put under control in two to four months, or get
contained in about six months after some stalemate, or get
out of control and become a global pandemic. That's what
happened in the United States during the 2009 H1N1 flu
pandemic. In the beginning, they also guarded the door
tight, but eventually things got out of control.
To everyone's surprise, the China controlled the epidemic;
the rest world was on pandemic.
situation in China
In July 19, there were 22 new confirmed cases in China,
including 5 imported cases and 17 local cases.
Zhang Wenhong said in a forum, the China manages the
imported cases with a closed-loop, and all imported cases
are under management and should not be counted as epidemic
From a scientific point of view, Zhang Wenhong believes the
difference between US and China on the epidemic control
shows in the capability to do community management, say,
whether you test every community unit and clear the cases.
Zhang Wenhong gave an example, Beijing has such strong
disease prevention and control ability to make such large
scale extended testing, and the expanded testing is
effective. In the United States, the expanded testing did
not play a particularly important role to control the
pandemic. Because there is only testing, no quarantine
In July 6, there were zero new case, it is the first time
since the outbreak of clusters of cases in the Xinfadi
wholesale market in Beijing on June 11, Zhang Wenhong
believes, under such new normal of "dynamic zero reset", the
whole city will keep a normal operation with sporadic cases
comes up. This Beijing approach could become a template.
Zeng Guang, member of a high-level expert group of NHS (the
National Health Commission) and a Former Chief Scientist of
the Epidemiology of China CDC (Chinese Center for Disease
Control and Prevention), said in an interview with The
Global Times on July 7, we need to treat COVID-19 with a
normal mind and see what will happen in its natural state,
"Don't get anxious". Many countries still have such a high
number of confirmed cases. They still rush to resume work
and reopen. China has contained the confirmed cases down to
several cases or even zero. This is very good for work and
life. Moreover, once confirmed cases goes to zero, it is
like a blank paper, new emerged infections will be easy to
identify and controlled. "Reduce confirmed cases to zero is
actually the only choice for China, because it is actually
least cost option."
Zhang Wenhong believes there are two kinds of "herd
immunity". One kind is biological concept. You have to be
infected or vaccinated to gain immunity. For now, there is
no vaccine yet, if everyone in the country gets infected,
the number of mortality will be unbearable. In our country,
people are put in the first place. We can not allow disease
spreads. We would rather slow down all other parts work, but
to reduce the death as much as possible.
The other is a sociological concept. China controlled the
epidemic in such a short time, under such complicated
conditions. This is closely connected with measures of
national mobilization. In this process, effective
communication between experts and the public is very
important. The core content delivered by medical experts is
very scientific. Experts communication with the normal
people with authority, science and accuracy. Only when the
whole society knows the development of the epidemic, they
can take effective personal protection, and show their
responsibility to join the fight against the epidemic in the
front line. In Shanghai, doctors, nurses, and community
cadres in neighborhood, police officers, customs officers,
etc, countless people form an barrier of immunity, stop the
disease spreading. That is the real "herd immunity".
and control measures by government
In response to the corona epidemic, Shanghai set up an
expert group immediately, and soon divided into two expert
groups. Zhang Wenhong heads the medical rescue group. The
other group is the public health group, headed by a former
inspector of the Shanghai Municipal Health Bureau. That's to
say, one team is for clinic doctors to cure diseases and
save life; the other team is for disease control experts to
control the epidemic. The two groups are connected. Zhuang
Wenhong also attends in the meetings by the public health
group. Shanghai city has officially issued a document to
institutionalize the idea of "doctor and prevention
integration". Both experts groups has two leaders, one is
the other group.
Before the "doctor
and prevention integration", doctors were just doctors,
prevention and control team did their prevention and
control. When doctors identified a new case, they reported
to prevention and control and waited for their response.
There was a time lag. While the prevention and control group
has the latest epidemic development that many hospitals do
not know, especially doctors in the non-infectious
department do not know. That's what happened when the
doctors in Wuhan got infected.
prevention integration" is a very important point to
reinforce the alarm, prevention and control system. The
doctors and the prevention and control system should form
into an organic integration in the face of epidemic that
threatens the national security. That is what they did in
second wave epidemic in the future
Wu Zunyou, the Chief Expert of the Epidemiology of China
CDC, made his new judgment at the forum " How to prevent and
control the epidemic in autumn and winter " on the 12th,
"the global pandemic will continue at a high level, and get
worse on a continued
high level pandemic."
Zhang Wenhong said in a special lecture on "understanding
the future" virus in July, "If a respiratory infection
disease has not reached herd immunity and its epidemic has
not been completely terminated, when winter comes, the virus
reproduction increases, and indoor activities also increase,
the risk of a second wave gets big. But for the U.S,
Brazil, and India, their peaks have not yet come, they are
still in the first wave."
Zhang Wenhong said: "after this epidemic fight, China's
public health system got stronger than before, and is
capable of dealing with imported risks." "So there would be
a (global) second wave, but our goal is not (second wave) in
In the CCTV News program "Relativity", Zhang Wenhong said,
"Beijing has set an example for us, and China will reject
the second wave. Whether it is an imported or a local
rebound, we will respond quickly, accurately control it. We
will not allow the second wave happen.
Tong Zhaohui, an expert from corona virus medical rescue
team of National Health Commission and vice president of
Beijing Chaoyang Hospital affiliated to Capital Medical
University, introduces at a press conference on July 7, that
asymptomatic infections include two groups of people, some
are truly asymptomatic and some are in the incubation phase.
The real asymptomatic infected person is only nucleic acid
test positive, but no symptoms, no characteristics of a
COVID-19 patients, and requires no treatment. We should draw
attention to those asymptomatic infections in incubation
Zhang Wenhong: "If we seek zero cases, the pressure will be
very high, should we never open our country again. If once
few random cases happen then the whole city stop, it would
be too costly. The current method is to keep the epidemic
under control as much as possible." "Avoiding crowds
gathering, keep social distancing, wear a mask, if these
measure are all done, I personally believe we will gradually
move into dynamic epidemic prevention in the future."
Beijing has made complete testing in key areas, and
voluntary testing in non-key areas this time, it has
achieved quite good results. "The testing in the United
States is also very large, but there is no sufficient
quarantine, that is not enough for the infection control.
The increase in testing is useful only when work with
effective quarantine and tracking."
Public health is a big system, not just for health alone,
but involving the whole society. In the future, the epidemic
prevention experts should cross the clinical and prevention,
and also spread into various fields. When an epidemic comes,
they can better evaluate how the economy works, when sports
events could open and how to protect
when opened, etc.
Guidance for the
Zhong Nanshan (Academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering
and famous respiratory expert) said at the Symposium of the
First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University in
July 10 that we should pay attention to two aspects of work
in the next step, the first is to study how to strengthen
cooperation in the world, and the second is to focus on
comforting people's hearts.
Academician Zhong Nanshan said, "The international COVID-19
has still not been effectively relieved, which has a greater
impact on human psychology than on the body. Now we need a
way to improve morale, or psychological counseling."
Chen Zhengming, tenured professor of John Radcliffe Hospital
and an expert in epidemiology, said in an online forum on
"How to prevent and control autumn and winter COVID-19" on
July 12. Firstly, it is impossible for this virus to
disappear, and we have to fight with the disease for a long
time. Secondly, China's experience tells us that this virus
is preventable and controllable.
Chen Zhengming said, "Some countries that have done well, if
COVID-19 prevention and control once relaxed there will be a
rebound. Japan, Australia, Israel and Britain also fully
opened last week. I am sure that the epidemic will rebound.
However, the experience of Beijing is very important. There
is a sporadic rebound. How to stop a single spark not to
start a prairie fire? Countries can gain valuable experience
from the prevention and control of Beijing."
National Health Commission (NHS) official website
World Wide Web 2020-07-08 07:25:15
Source: Beijing Daily, People's Daily Client, China Youth
Shanghai Observer 6/10
Shanghai Observer, The Paper, Beijing Daily
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